Mr. Peter Obi has the highest chance of been the president in the 2027 election
Let me remind you of how the 2023 presidential election unfolded.
Out of Nigeria’s 36 states plus the FCT, Tinubu won 12 states: Benue, Borno, Ekiti, Jigawa, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Rivers, and Zamfara.
This gave Tinubu a total of 8,794,726 votes (36.61%).
Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states: Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Osun, Sokoto, Taraba, and Yobe.
This gave Atiku 6,984,520 votes (29.07%).
Peter Obi also won 12 states: Abia, Anambra, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Imo, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau, and the FCT.
This gave Obi 6,101,533 votes (25.40%).
So, all three of them won 12 states each out of the 36 states.
Then we have His Excellency Engr. Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who won one state—but a state that is almost like five states in terms of its vote contribution: Kano State. Kano alone gave him a number of votes comparable to the combined votes Atiku received from Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Kebbi, as you can see from the map below 👇—not to mention the additional votes he received from other states.
Kwankwaso therefore secured 1,496,687 votes (6.23%).
Now, sit down and do the calculations yourselves. Look carefully at the gap between Peter Obi and Tinubu in 2023, considering that Obi did not have Kano or Bayelsa.
Now, the combined influence of Kwankwaso and Henry Dickson alongside Peter Obi is worth more than three million votes. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that Tinubu may not be able to reproduce his 2023 vote total in 2027.
As for Atiku, his votes in 2023 were significantly supported by the influence of the PDP establishment at the time, when the party had about 12 governors, as well as numerous senators and members of the House of Representatives. That is not the situation today, when the PDP does not have a single sitting governor.
Obi and Kwankwaso each secured nearly 8 million votes combined in 2023 without having governors, senators, or members of the House of Representatives behind them. Do you understand the level of political effort they demonstrated in 2023?
The 2027 election is not a game. Do the calculations carefully.
Atiku secured 6.9 million votes with the influence of 12 governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives, while Peter Obi secured 6.1 million votes without the backing of a single governor. So, when you consider the circumstances under which they achieved those figures, what is the significance of Obi’s performance compared with Atiku’s?
The PDP that supported Atiku in 2023 was far stronger than the ADC is today in 2027. Likewise, the present NDC coalition around Obi and Kwankwaso is stronger than the Labour Party was in 2023 because it now includes Kwankwaso and Dickson.
Similarly, the APC of 2023 was stronger than the APC of today because, in 2023, the party still enjoyed some level of goodwill among Nigerians. Today, its standing among many Nigerians has declined significantly. These are factors that should be carefully considered in any serious analysis.
Peter Obi won 12 states in 2023. This time, he could potentially add Kano, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Taraba, Benue, and Rivers–( state he won in 2023 but which was lost amid the political crisis involving Wike.)
Benue and Akwa Ibom were also within reach in 2023.
That would bring the potential total to 18 states.
If Obi wins 18 states, then, in my analysis there is a possibility that he could finish first, Atiku second, and Tinubu third.
Philip osas ✍️
